Opium production and opiate seizures are closely linked, but stockpiling has partly mitigated recent supply shocks.

• Opiate seizures have generally moved in parallel with opium production over time, but production has been far more volatile. Following the transfer of power in Afghanistan in 2021 and the subsequent ban on opium poppy cultivation, by 2024 both global production (-72 per cent) and global seizures (-66 per cent) had fallen drastically in comparison with 2021 levels.
• Large opium stocks in Afghanistan – estimated at 13,200 tons in 2022 – have cushioned supply, allowing heroin production and trafficking to continue despite reduced cultivation, though signs of depletion are now emerging.
• Short-term deviations reflect market adaptation: opiate seizures declined ahead of the Afghan ban (announced in 2022 and implemented in 2023) as stocks were apparently built up, and more recently seizures have continued to fall despite an increase in production (albeit still at very low levels), as operators of clandestine laboratories scaled back heroin production amid shrinking inventories.