Geographical flexibility and short production chains give synthetic drugs the potential to supplant plant-based drugs. However, so far, this is not the case in practice; plant-based drugs continue to prevail in some respects on the global illicit market.

• This is evidenced by indicators that extend beyond those that are influenced by drug supply reduction – such as the number of seizure cases, where cannabis dominates – to indicators of use and harm, such as the number of people with a drug use disorder and treatment provision.
• Outside of North America, on the basis of limited data, the price of synthetic opioids does not yet appear to have fallen sufficiently to drastically undercut that of heroin.
• Trends in seizure data continue to exhibit very strong growth in the case of both cocaine and methamphetamine – two stimulants, one plant-based and one synthetic. Data modelling suggests that, while methamphetamine has sustained a strong growth over a long period, the growth in cocaine has accelerated in recent years.